Thursday, December 30, 2010
FCPO-A1041 - Sell Mar'2011 at 3758 and take profit at 3738.
Profit = 20 Pts X 10 Lots X RM25 = RM5,000
Friday, December 24, 2010
what to happen in 2011? Guess....
1) It will create more speculative bubbles. We wouldn't be at all surprised to see oil go to $100 and above, for example. The Fed's money is, so far, not making it into the real economy. But it is available to speculators. And speculators are betting that they can make more money in commodities than in US T-bills. So, keep an eye open. Most likely, you'll see some bubbles in 2011.
2) Emerging market stocks could soar. Imagine that you're 'trading' for Goldman Sachs. You can borrow dollars for nothing. What do you do with them? Invest them in the world's fastest growing economies! If you're lucky, you'll get 10%...maybe 20% return - on someone else's money. And if you're unlucky? Who cares? It's not your money. And you won't go broke. The Fed will give you more money.
3) Gold to $1,500. Why not? The IMF just completed selling. China, India and other emerging economies are adding to their stash. Speculators are getting in on the biggest and most reliable bull market in the financial world. Heck, even individual investors are catching on.
Passing through the airport in Miami last week, we noticed a gold vending machine! We had heard they were around. But this was the first time we saw one. How surprising would it be if more and more ordinary people started imitating the rich, who've been buying gold for years? Suppose people realize that their central bank is now working against them...and that they have to maintain their own real money reserves? We could easily see gold over $1,500 in 2011.
4) US bond yields rise; the bond market begins to break down. It looked like it was beginning a week or two ago. Bonds were going down just as Ben Bernanke was trying to push them up. Sooner or later, it's bound to happen. Investors must eventually realize that buying US debt is a dangerous proposition; the Fed is actively trying to reduce its value. And if there is one thing the Fed ought to be able to do it's to undermine the value of US debt. After all, the feds control the currency it's calibrated in.
5) In contrast to this bubbly and bodacious outlook is a not- insignificant risk that the whole shebang will blow up. US stocks could crash. Bubbles can explode. Unemployment, housing, sales, consumer price inflation - all could get worse. Then what? Then, the US dollar and US debt will go up!
2) Emerging market stocks could soar. Imagine that you're 'trading' for Goldman Sachs. You can borrow dollars for nothing. What do you do with them? Invest them in the world's fastest growing economies! If you're lucky, you'll get 10%...maybe 20% return - on someone else's money. And if you're unlucky? Who cares? It's not your money. And you won't go broke. The Fed will give you more money.
3) Gold to $1,500. Why not? The IMF just completed selling. China, India and other emerging economies are adding to their stash. Speculators are getting in on the biggest and most reliable bull market in the financial world. Heck, even individual investors are catching on.
Passing through the airport in Miami last week, we noticed a gold vending machine! We had heard they were around. But this was the first time we saw one. How surprising would it be if more and more ordinary people started imitating the rich, who've been buying gold for years? Suppose people realize that their central bank is now working against them...and that they have to maintain their own real money reserves? We could easily see gold over $1,500 in 2011.
4) US bond yields rise; the bond market begins to break down. It looked like it was beginning a week or two ago. Bonds were going down just as Ben Bernanke was trying to push them up. Sooner or later, it's bound to happen. Investors must eventually realize that buying US debt is a dangerous proposition; the Fed is actively trying to reduce its value. And if there is one thing the Fed ought to be able to do it's to undermine the value of US debt. After all, the feds control the currency it's calibrated in.
5) In contrast to this bubbly and bodacious outlook is a not- insignificant risk that the whole shebang will blow up. US stocks could crash. Bubbles can explode. Unemployment, housing, sales, consumer price inflation - all could get worse. Then what? Then, the US dollar and US debt will go up!
Are you Insane like the person below???? You MUST trust registered person with Security Commission.
Harian Metro reported on 24-Dec-2010 in Malaysia.
Clerk falls prey to investment scam
A civil servant was tricked into taking part in an investment scam which caused her to be debt-ridden and poorer by RM43,000, Harian Metro reported.
The clerk, only known as Nora, 26, had secured a RM18,000 cooperative loan.
Soon after the loan approval, she met with an agent who offered her an investment scheme that would make investors eligible to secure personal loans.
During the meeting, Nora did not agree to join the investment scheme and her husband merely asked about the amount of loan they could apply for.
She said the man asked her to submit her pay slip and the co-operative deduction form before he could tell them the amount.
Three days later, she received a call from the cooperative saying that her loan had been approved. She was shocked to find that RM33,000 had been deposited into her account when she had never signed any application form.
She called the man to get an explanation about the money and he told her that she should cash out the money to invest in a scheme which promised better returns,
The following day, the man asked her and her husband to go to a bank in Puchong to transfer the money to another account under a certain company.
The couple were told that he would deal with the cooperative and that there would be a RM200 deduction in Nora’s salary.
Two months later, she was shocked to find out that RM545 had been deducted from her monthly salary.
Realising that something was amiss, she enquired from the cooperative and was shocked when she was informed that she owed RM43,000 to be settled in 15 years.
After several attempts to contact the agent failed, the couple lodged a report at the Presinct 7 police station in Putrajaya.
end....
Questions:-
1. This world is full of Cheater and liar, like collapse of Citigroup, AIG, Madoff, Baring Bank and etc
2. In Malaysia = If you never go to UK before and you received a email stating that you had won a lottery of GBP500,000. is this make sense? are you fool? insane?
3. Too Many scam email from Africa stating "need your help" to transfer USK30 million to your account and so many people believe it is your fortune. More than 3,000 people cheated from this scam in Malaysia including datuks.......
4. Email received on Bank's account blocked and need your confirmation of ID and password and you click from email that you received. How to verfy? if you click, you will lost all money in bank account. If this happen to you, you better stay in jail for safety reason.
5. Do you received phone call from any bank / telekom / celcom / insurance / Time share / telemarketing etc asking for credit card number? better don't give anything because you cannot verify this person either is truely from original source. How to verify? Your Name, email, IC, Address and some sensitve info is selling in black market by thousand of ringgit. no more private information are save. else where is the business of wikileak? U know, who pay salary for Wikileak?
6. Credit card scam - If card stolen / lost or use by third party which bank ask you to pay else their will keep your info in black list and you cannot apply any loan in future. advise : Better change to Cash card or reduce your credit limit to RM2,000 or less. if you need to buy more stuff, you can call the bank to increase credit limit for this time only. Even you report th third party to police, so what? it merely put in satistic.
7. Housing scam - How so many advertising bunting for House for sales with no Registered property agent's company and contact? if you allow them to sell your house and you pass them the key, then they will use your house for drug processing center, 4D HQ, Prostitute Hostel and etc. if police raid your unit then you property will be lock-up until this case settled. So your dream to sell this house will vanished and the title cannot be transfer because blocked by police. There are 10,000 cases of this kind and it look no end for next 2,000 years.
8. Insurance scam, unit trust scam, Investment scam like bird nest, seaweed, many more......
Clerk falls prey to investment scam
A civil servant was tricked into taking part in an investment scam which caused her to be debt-ridden and poorer by RM43,000, Harian Metro reported.
The clerk, only known as Nora, 26, had secured a RM18,000 cooperative loan.
Soon after the loan approval, she met with an agent who offered her an investment scheme that would make investors eligible to secure personal loans.
During the meeting, Nora did not agree to join the investment scheme and her husband merely asked about the amount of loan they could apply for.
She said the man asked her to submit her pay slip and the co-operative deduction form before he could tell them the amount.
Three days later, she received a call from the cooperative saying that her loan had been approved. She was shocked to find that RM33,000 had been deposited into her account when she had never signed any application form.
She called the man to get an explanation about the money and he told her that she should cash out the money to invest in a scheme which promised better returns,
The following day, the man asked her and her husband to go to a bank in Puchong to transfer the money to another account under a certain company.
The couple were told that he would deal with the cooperative and that there would be a RM200 deduction in Nora’s salary.
Two months later, she was shocked to find out that RM545 had been deducted from her monthly salary.
Realising that something was amiss, she enquired from the cooperative and was shocked when she was informed that she owed RM43,000 to be settled in 15 years.
After several attempts to contact the agent failed, the couple lodged a report at the Presinct 7 police station in Putrajaya.
end....
Questions:-
1. This world is full of Cheater and liar, like collapse of Citigroup, AIG, Madoff, Baring Bank and etc
2. In Malaysia = If you never go to UK before and you received a email stating that you had won a lottery of GBP500,000. is this make sense? are you fool? insane?
3. Too Many scam email from Africa stating "need your help" to transfer USK30 million to your account and so many people believe it is your fortune. More than 3,000 people cheated from this scam in Malaysia including datuks.......
4. Email received on Bank's account blocked and need your confirmation of ID and password and you click from email that you received. How to verfy? if you click, you will lost all money in bank account. If this happen to you, you better stay in jail for safety reason.
5. Do you received phone call from any bank / telekom / celcom / insurance / Time share / telemarketing etc asking for credit card number? better don't give anything because you cannot verify this person either is truely from original source. How to verify? Your Name, email, IC, Address and some sensitve info is selling in black market by thousand of ringgit. no more private information are save. else where is the business of wikileak? U know, who pay salary for Wikileak?
6. Credit card scam - If card stolen / lost or use by third party which bank ask you to pay else their will keep your info in black list and you cannot apply any loan in future. advise : Better change to Cash card or reduce your credit limit to RM2,000 or less. if you need to buy more stuff, you can call the bank to increase credit limit for this time only. Even you report th third party to police, so what? it merely put in satistic.
7. Housing scam - How so many advertising bunting for House for sales with no Registered property agent's company and contact? if you allow them to sell your house and you pass them the key, then they will use your house for drug processing center, 4D HQ, Prostitute Hostel and etc. if police raid your unit then you property will be lock-up until this case settled. So your dream to sell this house will vanished and the title cannot be transfer because blocked by police. There are 10,000 cases of this kind and it look no end for next 2,000 years.
8. Insurance scam, unit trust scam, Investment scam like bird nest, seaweed, many more......
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
2011???
The bottom line for 2011? "Fasten your seatbelts," because China -- and the rest of the world -- could be in for a bumpy ride..especially 3Q.
Monday, December 13, 2010
USA two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts.
Just consider this:
Payroll tax deduction will save businesses $120 billion in 2011.
Renewal of emergency unemployment benefits puts $60 billion in the hands of unemployed Americans.
ARRA tax-cut extensions will hand Americans $20 billion.
The full expensing of business investment in 2011 will reduce corporate taxes by $100 billion.
Total : USD300 Billion.
The Next Two Weeks Could Be Our Biggest of the Year
Why? Just think about the following…
Congress and the White House will work out all the nitty-gritty details over the next two weeks. Just the prospect of a solid "yes" vote before Christmas will send stocks much higher in the next two weeks.
Thanks to the passage of the new tax cuts, brokerage analysts will be tripping over themselves to raise their earnings estimates for 2011, which will give stocks another shot in the arm.
Goldman Sachs is already expecting the S&P 500’s price/earnings multiple to swell to 13.9X. But historically, periods of 1% to 2% inflation—like now—have led to a 20X average multiple. So, even my rose-colored glasses might not be rosy enough!
Payroll tax deduction will save businesses $120 billion in 2011.
Renewal of emergency unemployment benefits puts $60 billion in the hands of unemployed Americans.
ARRA tax-cut extensions will hand Americans $20 billion.
The full expensing of business investment in 2011 will reduce corporate taxes by $100 billion.
Total : USD300 Billion.
The Next Two Weeks Could Be Our Biggest of the Year
Why? Just think about the following…
Congress and the White House will work out all the nitty-gritty details over the next two weeks. Just the prospect of a solid "yes" vote before Christmas will send stocks much higher in the next two weeks.
Thanks to the passage of the new tax cuts, brokerage analysts will be tripping over themselves to raise their earnings estimates for 2011, which will give stocks another shot in the arm.
Goldman Sachs is already expecting the S&P 500’s price/earnings multiple to swell to 13.9X. But historically, periods of 1% to 2% inflation—like now—have led to a 20X average multiple. So, even my rose-colored glasses might not be rosy enough!
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Monday, November 22, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Friday, October 29, 2010
Thursday, October 28, 2010
FKLI-B1016 Profit target @ 1506 triggered on 27-10-2010
Total profit = 5points x 10 lots x RM50 =RM2,500
FKLI-1017 Profit target @ 1506 triggered
FKLI-November2010
Total profit : 4points x 10 lots x RM50 = RM2,000
Total profit : 4points x 10 lots x RM50 = RM2,000
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
FCPO-B1029 Call triggered @ 3020
Total profit= 15points x 10 lots x RM25 = RM 3,750
*Edit on 28-10-2010
Profit target @3020 triggered
*Edit on 28-10-2010
Profit target @3020 triggered
FCPO-B1019 (Ammend) Take profit at 11-10-2010 @2900
Typo error. Previous profits posted on 13-10-2010 is RM3,500
The correct amount should be as follows:
Total profit: 140points x 10 lots x RM25 = RM35,000
The correct amount should be as follows:
Total profit: 140points x 10 lots x RM25 = RM35,000
FKLI-B1011(Ammend) Park Cut Loss @1489
Cut loss @ 1489 triggered
Total loss = 8.5points x 10 lots x RM50 = RM4,250
Total loss = 8.5points x 10 lots x RM50 = RM4,250
FKLI-B1012 Profit Target parked 21-Oct-2010 at 1500 triggered this morning
Profit = 4points x 10 lots x RMRM50 = RM2,000
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
FCPO-B1028 Profit target revise to 3040
Take profit at 3040
Total profits = 16points x 10 lots x RM25= RM4,000
*Changes: previously named FCPO-B1025 on 26-10-2010
Total profits = 16points x 10 lots x RM25= RM4,000
*Changes: previously named FCPO-B1025 on 26-10-2010
FCPO-B1028 Park Profit @ 3025, cut loss @ 3092
Typo error. Ammended: previously typed FCPO-B1025 on 26-10-2010.
FKLI-B1015 Park profit @ 1498 , park cut loss @1474
Take profit at 1498
Total profit: 5points x 10 lots x RM50 = RM2,500
Total profit: 5points x 10 lots x RM50 = RM2,500
Monday, October 25, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
FCPO-B1025 Take Profit at 19-10-2010 @ 2938
(Edit on 27-10-2010)
2938 triggered on 20-10-2010
Total profits = 16points x 10 lots x RM25 = RM4,000
2938 triggered on 20-10-2010
Total profits = 16points x 10 lots x RM25 = RM4,000
Monday, October 18, 2010
Friday, October 15, 2010
FCPO-B1022 Take profit at 14-10-2010 @2940
Total Profit = 17 pts X 10 lot X RM25 = RM4,250
*(Edit on 27-10-12010
FCPO-B1022 Cut loss at 2976)
*(Edit on 27-10-12010
FCPO-B1022 Cut loss at 2976)
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
FCPO-B1021 Park long 10 lot at 13-10-2010 @2810
(Edit on 27-10-2010)
2810 not triggered.
Park profit @ 2875, not triggered
2810 not triggered.
Park profit @ 2875, not triggered
Friday, October 8, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
03-Oct-2010, FREE Tutorial on Stock, Futures, option and Forex
Hi,
Note : 3 reports attached for your basic reference only.
1. We expect KLCI to go up and break 1500 next month (Oct-2010). Why we so bullish?
2. How to Make your Investment make 10% every month?
3. Option & Forex - Start register for new membership - We will teach Option and Forex next year, Can pre register for preview session.
4. We preparing for Korea and Singapore Index Futures.
FREE Sharing Session
Location : Mcdonald, The Weld, Jalan Raja Chulan, Kuala Lumpur
Date : 03-Oct-2010 (SUNDAY)
Time : 1pm to 4pm.
Basic Course - Futures Alone (Market Phycology + Movement Analysis)
Date : 10-Oct-2010 (SUNDAY)
Time : 9.30am to 5pm.
Fee : RM600, Futures Alone
Fee : RM1,300 Penny Stock Teaching (17-Oct-2010)
We offer : Penny Stock Manage Account
Online Trading on Futures (with Charting Tool)
Basic Course - RM600
Advance Course - RM5,000
VIP Course - RM50,000
Please reserve your seat - FIFO basis and limited to 10 seats only. Email
your Name and Mobile to andersonkajang@yahoo.com
Please arrive before 1pm & all mobile phone will shut down after 1pm.
http://taipanmalaysia.webs.com/pennystock.htm
Hope more customer to attend this talk and profit from it. Kindly register
via email so we can reserve a seat to you.
FREE Gift : A new movie which explain the meltdown of USA to DJIA 4000.
kindly bring yr tumbdrive.
Regards,
Anderson Wong (Futures Broker)
Taipan Course Promoter
Mobile : 013-3804672.
Email / Yahoo Messenger : andersonkajang@yahoo.com
You want to see real result????? Look at our result:-
web : http://taipanmalaysia.webs.com/pennystock.htm
Note : 3 reports attached for your basic reference only.
1. We expect KLCI to go up and break 1500 next month (Oct-2010). Why we so bullish?
2. How to Make your Investment make 10% every month?
3. Option & Forex - Start register for new membership - We will teach Option and Forex next year, Can pre register for preview session.
4. We preparing for Korea and Singapore Index Futures.
FREE Sharing Session
Location : Mcdonald, The Weld, Jalan Raja Chulan, Kuala Lumpur
Date : 03-Oct-2010 (SUNDAY)
Time : 1pm to 4pm.
Basic Course - Futures Alone (Market Phycology + Movement Analysis)
Date : 10-Oct-2010 (SUNDAY)
Time : 9.30am to 5pm.
Fee : RM600, Futures Alone
Fee : RM1,300 Penny Stock Teaching (17-Oct-2010)
We offer : Penny Stock Manage Account
Online Trading on Futures (with Charting Tool)
Basic Course - RM600
Advance Course - RM5,000
VIP Course - RM50,000
Please reserve your seat - FIFO basis and limited to 10 seats only. Email
your Name and Mobile to andersonkajang@yahoo.com
Please arrive before 1pm & all mobile phone will shut down after 1pm.
http://taipanmalaysia.webs.com/pennystock.htm
Hope more customer to attend this talk and profit from it. Kindly register
via email so we can reserve a seat to you.
FREE Gift : A new movie which explain the meltdown of USA to DJIA 4000.
kindly bring yr tumbdrive.
Regards,
Anderson Wong (Futures Broker)
Taipan Course Promoter
Mobile : 013-3804672.
Email / Yahoo Messenger : andersonkajang@yahoo.com
You want to see real result????? Look at our result:-
web : http://taipanmalaysia.webs.com/pennystock.htm
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
The Currency Crisis of 2010-2011
Financial markets in the last two years have been absolutely nuts. Huge moves in currencies, bonds, stocks, commodities -- every market went crazy as the world nearly fell into a dark age. Yes, it was very close to "guns, ammo and water" time, much closer than any of the CNBC pundits would let on.
The financial markets seem a bit calmer over the past few months. Even with people flooding into U.S. government bonds because of safety concerns, the markets aren't making the huge moves they made in 2008 and 2009. Yes, investors are avoiding the stock market, but it isn't like there is panic in the streets, like there was until May of this year. The markets have calmed a bit.
Now for some bad news: These calm times aren't going to last. Soon, people are going to be talking about the currency crisis of 2010-2011 -- as we live through it, blow by blow.
But the biggest part of it will be due to the titanic clash of wrongheaded economics clashing with real-world facts.
When the financial markets realize this, there is going to be huge, unprecedented moves that rock all markets -- and the calm times will be over.
We need a way to understand what might happen in the next year and profit from it.
Competitive Devaluations of Currencies
The currency crisis of 2010-2011 will be about two big ideas: recognizing losses from the housing market and a double-dip recession. But profiting from the currency crisis will be about one huge idea: competitive devaluation of currencies. During 2010 and 2011, the biggest topic will be how countries are competing to make their currencies less valuable, not more valuable.
The reason for this is simple -- according to standard economic theory, the only way for an economy to grow is to make stuff for rich people and sell it to them. Nearly every economy in the world is export-driven except the United States. A weak currency is great for exports.
So during the next year, as the world economy falls off a cliff, countries will be fighting for the crumbs from an ever-smaller pie. There is really only one choice here -- the way to economic growth in this situation is to be the cheapest supplier of goods.
In these lean times, companies are already running with the minimum staff possible. An easy way to make your goods cheaper is to make your currency less valuable than it was.
We've seen this already -- countries are bickering about weakening their currencies. China is holding its currency artificially weak against the U.S. dollar and has for years. Japan just had a meeting on how they are going to intervene and make their currency weaker. But Germany is in the best situation of all.
You've heard about the problems with the euro -- the euro is down nearly 25% from its highs because people are worried that some countries in the eurozone could default on their debt. But for German exporters, this low euro is great news. It is like a 25%-off sale, but they magically get the same number of euros to pay their workers. And they don't have to spend a euro to make their currency weaker.
Germany recorded 2.1% growth in one quarter -- that's nearly 9% growth over a year -- largely because the euro is so undervalued right now. The only problem is that this growth is coming at the expense of another country's growth.
It's actually a long list of other countries that want this growth. You can bet that Japan, China, Australia, the U.K, and the rest of the world took notice of that smoking-hot quarter. I bet they are all wishing they had a currency crisis too right now -- 9% growth transforms a weak currency into a strong domestic economy.
But one country's growth is another country's lost growth. The competition to weaken currencies will be fierce, and governments will spend hundreds of billions to support their domestic economies.
The next few years are going to be defined by currency interventions and plots to manipulate the currency market. Most of these interventions will be unsuccessful, but some will succeed. China has been extremely successful in pegging its currency for several years, so a country with enough money can make it happen. But in any case, when countries intervene, Forex markets get hot.
Recovery for the Global Economy?
The global economy never recovered from the shadow banking crisis of 2008. While today people are talking about government spending, the reason the world blew up in 2008-2009 didn't have anything to do with governments. The crisis was due to investment banks blowing up -- because they lost hundreds of billions of dollars. People forget this, but it was excessive speculation that started the crisis.
Then governments around the world made a huge, huge mistake. The U.S. government decided to save the banking system, thinking that it was lending that drove the real world economy. Really, it's the other way around -- our real world economy is what drives real economic growth and the creation of wealth.
Of course, our government spent several trillion dollars on this stupid idea of supporting banks -- at the expense of throwing real people and businesses off the bridge. You can see the shoddy results: 9.5% unemployment, trillions of dollars of new debt, horrible consumer sentiment, low economic growth -- a grand slam of bad outcomes. And it has all been caused by a failure of an economic paradigm that doesn't recognize how money is actually created.
Now we are stuck with a situation where governments have absorbed much of the private sector losses in the crisis through a variety of programs. But the problem is that although those losses might have changed hands, they didn't go away.
Now, there are really only two ways for losses of this magnitude to go away. One, they can be written off and recognized by the banks, companies, and people who made the bad business decisions. That isn't happening at all -- these banks have done everything possible to push the losses off on U.S. citizens, or pretend they don't exist. Two, they can be inflated away. That isn't happening either. Inflation is the lowest it has been in my lifetime. And inflation expectations over the next 10 years are very, very low.
Moves in the Global Currency Market
So what is going to happen? We're not recognizing the losses, and we're not inflating the losses away. We're facing persistent low inflation in the U.S., Japan, and the eurozone, which is about 60% of the world's economy. And competitive devaluations have already started -- that's a fact.
Well, there are five possibilities:
Banks are forced to recognize additional losses because of more real estate losses, causing a second banking crisis.
The euro loses another 20% due to the sovereign debt crisis but the eurozone economy is white hot.
One country decides to end its own crisis by inflating away the losses, and also benefits through resulting currency devaluation. Other countries follow suit and inflation once again takes hold.
Countries decide to attempt to stimulate their way out of the second recession with additional government spending and are unsuccessful.
Countries decide to stimulate their way out of the second recession with middle-class tax cuts and are successful.
These are the most-likely scenarios for the next year -- and every single one involves large moves in the currency markets.
That's why I expect huge market moves in 2010 through 2011 across the globe, most likely resulting in massive currency moves.
Regards.
Anderson Wong
Watch out for my class in 2011.
The financial markets seem a bit calmer over the past few months. Even with people flooding into U.S. government bonds because of safety concerns, the markets aren't making the huge moves they made in 2008 and 2009. Yes, investors are avoiding the stock market, but it isn't like there is panic in the streets, like there was until May of this year. The markets have calmed a bit.
Now for some bad news: These calm times aren't going to last. Soon, people are going to be talking about the currency crisis of 2010-2011 -- as we live through it, blow by blow.
But the biggest part of it will be due to the titanic clash of wrongheaded economics clashing with real-world facts.
When the financial markets realize this, there is going to be huge, unprecedented moves that rock all markets -- and the calm times will be over.
We need a way to understand what might happen in the next year and profit from it.
Competitive Devaluations of Currencies
The currency crisis of 2010-2011 will be about two big ideas: recognizing losses from the housing market and a double-dip recession. But profiting from the currency crisis will be about one huge idea: competitive devaluation of currencies. During 2010 and 2011, the biggest topic will be how countries are competing to make their currencies less valuable, not more valuable.
The reason for this is simple -- according to standard economic theory, the only way for an economy to grow is to make stuff for rich people and sell it to them. Nearly every economy in the world is export-driven except the United States. A weak currency is great for exports.
So during the next year, as the world economy falls off a cliff, countries will be fighting for the crumbs from an ever-smaller pie. There is really only one choice here -- the way to economic growth in this situation is to be the cheapest supplier of goods.
In these lean times, companies are already running with the minimum staff possible. An easy way to make your goods cheaper is to make your currency less valuable than it was.
We've seen this already -- countries are bickering about weakening their currencies. China is holding its currency artificially weak against the U.S. dollar and has for years. Japan just had a meeting on how they are going to intervene and make their currency weaker. But Germany is in the best situation of all.
You've heard about the problems with the euro -- the euro is down nearly 25% from its highs because people are worried that some countries in the eurozone could default on their debt. But for German exporters, this low euro is great news. It is like a 25%-off sale, but they magically get the same number of euros to pay their workers. And they don't have to spend a euro to make their currency weaker.
Germany recorded 2.1% growth in one quarter -- that's nearly 9% growth over a year -- largely because the euro is so undervalued right now. The only problem is that this growth is coming at the expense of another country's growth.
It's actually a long list of other countries that want this growth. You can bet that Japan, China, Australia, the U.K, and the rest of the world took notice of that smoking-hot quarter. I bet they are all wishing they had a currency crisis too right now -- 9% growth transforms a weak currency into a strong domestic economy.
But one country's growth is another country's lost growth. The competition to weaken currencies will be fierce, and governments will spend hundreds of billions to support their domestic economies.
The next few years are going to be defined by currency interventions and plots to manipulate the currency market. Most of these interventions will be unsuccessful, but some will succeed. China has been extremely successful in pegging its currency for several years, so a country with enough money can make it happen. But in any case, when countries intervene, Forex markets get hot.
Recovery for the Global Economy?
The global economy never recovered from the shadow banking crisis of 2008. While today people are talking about government spending, the reason the world blew up in 2008-2009 didn't have anything to do with governments. The crisis was due to investment banks blowing up -- because they lost hundreds of billions of dollars. People forget this, but it was excessive speculation that started the crisis.
Then governments around the world made a huge, huge mistake. The U.S. government decided to save the banking system, thinking that it was lending that drove the real world economy. Really, it's the other way around -- our real world economy is what drives real economic growth and the creation of wealth.
Of course, our government spent several trillion dollars on this stupid idea of supporting banks -- at the expense of throwing real people and businesses off the bridge. You can see the shoddy results: 9.5% unemployment, trillions of dollars of new debt, horrible consumer sentiment, low economic growth -- a grand slam of bad outcomes. And it has all been caused by a failure of an economic paradigm that doesn't recognize how money is actually created.
Now we are stuck with a situation where governments have absorbed much of the private sector losses in the crisis through a variety of programs. But the problem is that although those losses might have changed hands, they didn't go away.
Now, there are really only two ways for losses of this magnitude to go away. One, they can be written off and recognized by the banks, companies, and people who made the bad business decisions. That isn't happening at all -- these banks have done everything possible to push the losses off on U.S. citizens, or pretend they don't exist. Two, they can be inflated away. That isn't happening either. Inflation is the lowest it has been in my lifetime. And inflation expectations over the next 10 years are very, very low.
Moves in the Global Currency Market
So what is going to happen? We're not recognizing the losses, and we're not inflating the losses away. We're facing persistent low inflation in the U.S., Japan, and the eurozone, which is about 60% of the world's economy. And competitive devaluations have already started -- that's a fact.
Well, there are five possibilities:
Banks are forced to recognize additional losses because of more real estate losses, causing a second banking crisis.
The euro loses another 20% due to the sovereign debt crisis but the eurozone economy is white hot.
One country decides to end its own crisis by inflating away the losses, and also benefits through resulting currency devaluation. Other countries follow suit and inflation once again takes hold.
Countries decide to attempt to stimulate their way out of the second recession with additional government spending and are unsuccessful.
Countries decide to stimulate their way out of the second recession with middle-class tax cuts and are successful.
These are the most-likely scenarios for the next year -- and every single one involves large moves in the currency markets.
That's why I expect huge market moves in 2010 through 2011 across the globe, most likely resulting in massive currency moves.
Regards.
Anderson Wong
Watch out for my class in 2011.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
FCPO-A1014 - Target triggered sell 10 lot at 2668.
Profit = 3 pts X 10 Lots X RM25 = RM750.
(We hold so long but can fight market)
(We hold so long but can fight market)
Monday, September 6, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Monday, August 9, 2010
Muni Bond
This year 2010, Aug is alarmingly different.
Already this year, 122 municipal bonds ($2.997 billion) have defaulted, and 78 more (another $2.705 billion) are about to default.
Already this year, 122 municipal bonds ($2.997 billion) have defaulted, and 78 more (another $2.705 billion) are about to default.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Thursday, August 5, 2010
FCPO-A1008 - Buy 10 lot at 2576.
Profit = 3 Pts X 10 Lot X RM25 = RM750.
(Server slow, delay post that done on this morning.)
(Server slow, delay post that done on this morning.)
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
zero percent growth rate by 2011. Here’s why:-
1. The long-term trend back towards consumer frugality and higher savings rates remains in full force. This will dampen consumer spending.
2. A double dip in housing prices is likely, because subsidies are ending and the backlog of foreclosure resolutions is about to accelerate.
3. The impact of the Obama administration’s stimulus plan is fading, and is not leading to any real “multiplier” effects because most of it went to plug holes in state government budgets.
4. European and Chinese GDP are slowing for well-publicized reasons.
5. Those who create jobs in the U.S. fear rising tax rates rising in 2011, rising energy prices from cap-and-trade legislation, the pro-Wall Street “financial reform” bill, and a laundry list of other anti-business policies.
2. A double dip in housing prices is likely, because subsidies are ending and the backlog of foreclosure resolutions is about to accelerate.
3. The impact of the Obama administration’s stimulus plan is fading, and is not leading to any real “multiplier” effects because most of it went to plug holes in state government budgets.
4. European and Chinese GDP are slowing for well-publicized reasons.
5. Those who create jobs in the U.S. fear rising tax rates rising in 2011, rising energy prices from cap-and-trade legislation, the pro-Wall Street “financial reform” bill, and a laundry list of other anti-business policies.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Deflation period kick-in..... your bank will call back overdraf soon.
7-point case for "soft-core deflationism" in 27-Jul-2010 :
1) There is no recovery; there won't ever be a recovery
2) The de-leveraging period will be longer and harder than people
expect...leading to spells of deflation and double...triple...dipping 3) The feds will fight it with every weapon available
4) However, they will not push the 'nuclear button' - wanton, reckless money printing - until the bond market cracks
5) It will not crack soon, because the feds are incompetent; they will not succeed in getting higher rates of inflation; at least, not soon.
6) The dollar will remain strong. Bonds will go up...for now...
7) The Dow will fall...but not below 1,000...probably not below 5,000
1) There is no recovery; there won't ever be a recovery
2) The de-leveraging period will be longer and harder than people
expect...leading to spells of deflation and double...triple...dipping 3) The feds will fight it with every weapon available
4) However, they will not push the 'nuclear button' - wanton, reckless money printing - until the bond market cracks
5) It will not crack soon, because the feds are incompetent; they will not succeed in getting higher rates of inflation; at least, not soon.
6) The dollar will remain strong. Bonds will go up...for now...
7) The Dow will fall...but not below 1,000...probably not below 5,000
Start a new posting in FKLI & FCPO and charge.
RM200 for FKLI weekly call and
RM400 for FCPO intraday call.
RM400 for FCPO intraday call.
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